Well, here we are after all the chaos of the Academy’s multiple debacles and the craziness of a year that has produced no clear favorite film (no pun intended). Who wins tonight is anyone’s guess; so even though I’ve tried to do my homework in the weeks leading up to the big show tonight, don’t bet anything on what you read below. Just take the following info as my rambling attempt to make sense of an awards season that, while incredibly bizarre and confusing, should prove to be super entertaining in its grand finale.
Actor in a Leading Role: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Malek has been racking up the awards this season for his role as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury, and he’d almost be a sure bet for the Oscar tonight if not for Christian Bale’s riveting performance as Dick Cheney in Vice. Of the two, though, Malek is just stunning in Bohemian Rhapsody, alternately pitiable, outlandish, and downright electrifying.
Actress in a Leading Role: Glenn Close, The Wife
Close has more Oscar nominations with no wins than any other living actor/actress, so she’s definitely a sentimental favorite. Plus, like Malek she’s been collecting a lot of hardware this year, so she should break her Oscar losing streak tonight. If someone is going to swoop in and steal the little golden man away from Close, though, it will be Olivia Colman as Queen Anne in The Favourite.
Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
It’s quite possible that Green Book might win BP tonight–and only take home one other Oscar for Ali’s performance as Dr. Don Shirley. It would be Ali’s second Oscar in two years (three “awards years”) as he won in 2017 for Moonlight. Although his role in Green Book is more of a co-lead with Viggo Mortensen’s Tony Lip, Ali is still very solid and memorable in this fantastic film.
Actress in a Supporting Role: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Despite the fact that Beale Street was overlooked (or snubbed, according to many) for BP, King’s performance has received rave reviews; and she has won several major awards this season. This category is perhaps a little more fluid than the other acting categories–one of the ladies from The Favourite might steal this one–but King should be okay here, in my opinion.
Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
There’s been some buzz that this film should have received a BP nod; so in spite of the fact that the field of full-length animated movies is strong this year with sequels Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man will win.
Cinematography: Roma
Roma not winning this award would be rather shocking. Roma winning this award might give it an edge in the BP competition.
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Again, it would be a massive surprise if Roma doesn’t take this one.
Music (Original Score): Mary Poppins Returns
No one has any idea who’s going to take home the statuette for this category, so we’ll just go with Disney and a tribute to an older fan favorite, Mary Poppins.
Music (Original Song): “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
Lady Gaga gets her Oscar–and gives us what will probably prove to be one of the most memorable moments in the show tonight: a performance of “Shallow” with Bradley Cooper.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): BlackkKlansman
A very tough category here; but if BlackkKlansman doesn’t win BP and Spike Lee doesn’t win for Directing, then a “consolation prize” would be Lee winning for writing this film. Another possible winner here would be If Beale Street Could Talk.
Writing (Original Screenplay): The Favourite
I hate basically everything about this film, but others love it, and they love it enough to give it this big award. Personally, I hope Green Book takes this one–and it could–but The Favourite is much stranger and “out of the box,” so no surprise if it wins for writing.
Directing: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
While there might be some doubt about Cuaron’s winning Cinematography (not to mention the five total Oscars he’s up for tonight), there’s been a consensus, for the most part, that he will take home this award–even if Roma fails to win BP.
Best Picture: Roma
Oh, the agony of this decision! Honestly, when that envelope is finally opened tonight (and hopefully it will be the correct envelope!), I won’t be surprised by whatever film title is read out. I’m hoping for Green Book, and in the last few days there has been a strong push for it to win tonight. But Roma has been the favorite of the majority of critics, and the rest of the contenders have split up so many of the other awards, there’s just no telling what the Academy is thinking. Just please don’t let it be The Favourite…
Enjoy the show, Everyone!