If you’re looking for a movie with a lot of action, Marriage Story is not for you. This is the year’s family drama, I suppose; and it has way more to do with feelings and emotions than with any particularly wild plot schemes. The film tells the story of the divorce of Charlie and Nicole–as well as the complication added by money-grubbing, hatred-rousing divorce lawyers. It goes without saying that many people in Hollywood are familiar with the divorce storyline since celebrity marriages statistically have higher rates of failure than those of the average American. Whether or not that makes Marriage Story a popular choice for BP remains to be seen.

Channeling past winners like 1979’s Kramer vs. Kramer and 1980’s Ordinary People, Marriage Story examines what it means to be a family in the midst of family circumstances that are not ideal. Charlie and Nicole did love each other once, and it is difficult for them (and for us viewers as well) to grasp what exactly broke them apart. The heartbreak in the film is layered with the comedic relief of quirky family members and awkward situations that add to the reality of the story and further emphasize the fact that people and relationships are complicated–something we can all relate to, whether or not we’ve experienced the pain of divorce.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

This is a tough one. The film’s story is good, though not great; and its writing is decent. But what Marriage Story mostly has going for it is that its actors deliver believable, moving performances that allow us to connect with them emotionally more than we do with characters in other nominated films for this year. I see sincerity in this movie, and that counts for something–though probably not enough to win BP.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

It’s a little forgettable when it sits in a list with blockbuster-caliber films like 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Marriage Story isn’t the only film from 2019 to feature strong acting performances in emotional roles, so it can’t really bank on that feature alone to put it at the top of Academy members’ voting ballots. If Parasite winning BP would be like feeling the tremors of an earthquake, then Marriage Story winning BP would be like witnessing the dawn of the apocalypse. Just saying…