Here we are again, ready to celebrate film and award (what are supposed to be) the year’s best motion pictures! Like last year, we have an interesting group of films this year–no one movie has dominated the awards shows leading up to tonight’s Academy Awards, so we are probably in for a nice divvying up of the little golden statuettes–with perhaps a few surprises thrown in here and there. Let me make my usual disclaimer first: Typically, I’m pretty bad at Oscar predictions. And now here are a few guesses as to who I think will take home some of the prizes at tonight’s Academy Awards.
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
This one is a no-brainer. Phoenix has won all the awards so far this year, he’s a brilliant actor yet to win an Oscar, he should have won for 2000’s Gladiator (maybe that’s beside the point now…), and he steals the show in Joker. Expect an awkward speech, though.
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
I think we’ll get another awkward moment from Zellweger if her Oscar acceptance speech is anything like the one she made at the Golden Globes a few weeks back. Like Phoenix, Zellweger has been cleaning up at the awards shows so far, and there doesn’t seem to be any inclination that the Academy will vote differently. That being said, it’s hard to forget that shocking incident in last year’s show when Olivia Colman upset shoo-in Glenn Close for this award, but Zellweger’s competition this year doesn’t seem to be as strong.
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pitt is very popular with fans and peers. Although he already has an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave (2013), Pitt doesn’t yet have a golden man for acting. In the Academy’s long tradition of awarding popular actors with Oscars, Pitt will fill this void in his life tonight.
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
I love Laura Dern–in Jurassic Park. I didn’t like her so much in Marriage Story. But everyone else does, and she will continue her winning streak tonight–beating out her Marriage Story co-star Scarlett Johansson, whose first two Oscar nominations came in the same year: one for Best Actress for Marriage Story, and the other for Best Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, neither of which she will probably win.
Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 4
This is a hard one this year. It was a bit of a shocker to not see Frozen II or The Lion King in this category, so we’re left with sorting out the nominees we did get. The movies in this category have divided up several awards among themselves so far; and although the Academy isn’t always kind to sequels (especially of an animated sort), there aren’t too many people who don’t love Pixar or have warm feelings for its first original film, Toy Story (1995).
International Feature Film: Parasite
Another no-brainer. If something crazy happens and Parasite does not win in this category, 1917 will almost certainly be this year’s Best Picture winner.
Music (Original Score): Joker, Hildur Guonadottir
A relative unknown, Guonadottir gave us one of the most hauntingly beautiful scores of the year in Joker. The music isn’t as memorable as past epic scores like that of 1939’s Gone with the Wind or 1997’s Titanic, but it manages to mirror what goes on within the mind of Arthur Fleck, as well as capture the chaos of a disintegrating world.
Music (Original Song): “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
Who (among Academy members) would not want to see Elton John win an Oscar? This is not a strong category this year, but I think poor Diane Warren will lose yet again.
Cinematography: 1917
Those long battlefield shots–especially the one at the end–will be hard to overcome in this category.
Production Design: 1917
I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could snatch this one as well, but 1917‘s set pieces and background locations are stunningly realistic. At times the characters are dwarfed by their surroundings, and not for no reason.
Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Here we have a BP nominee who will not win BP taking home one of the awards that usually goes to the film that wins BP. But, Ford v Ferrari is a popular pick among critics to win this category due to the speed of the shots the editors had to work with. Parasite could also win here; and if it does, its odds of winning BP will multiply tremendously.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Little Women, Greta Gerwig
Jojo Rabbit is perhaps the frontrunner for this category; but since so many people are miffed about Gerwig’s exclusion from the Best Directing category, I’m thinking she may garner more than enough votes to take home an Oscar for her lovely adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel.
Writing (Original Screenplay): Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood might win here as well, but Parasite is more deserving of this award. Plus, if Bong Joon Ho does not win for Best Director or Best Picture, an Oscar in this category would be a nice consolation prize.
Directing: Sam Mendes, 1917
Whoever wins for directing will almost certainly also tell us who will win BP. However, there is a slim chance that Mendes will win for directing 1917 and Parasite will steal BP. Quentin Tarantino is also a player in this category. But I feel that Mendes has the momentum from his wins at the year’s other awards shows, and 1917‘s continuous shots and sweeping cinematography put Mendes ahead of his competitors for this award.
Best Picture: 1917
In the words of Heath Ledger’s Joker, “And…here…we…go.” I’ve been agonizing about my choice for BP since seeing Parasite this past Friday night. I had become nearly absolutely certain that 1917 has BP in the bag. But, oh man, Parasite‘s complexity, its brilliant storytelling, and its ambiguous ending keep swirling in my mind. Out of every BP nominee I’ve watched this year, Parasite is the one I want to watch again as soon as possible. 1917 is a beautiful movie with a gripping and inspiring story. Parasite is not a beautiful movie, but it is downright ingenious. The question of which will win really comes down to whether Academy voters will choose a foreign film to receive their highest honor or if they will stick with a genre more familiar to them and opt for 1917‘s classic war story. I honestly could see it going either way. And we can’t totally count out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood due to Hollywood’s love affair with itself. But I think, ultimately, 1917 takes this one home. Parasite‘s popularity is late-blooming, and the Academy may not yet be as diverse or “forward-thinking” as it believes it is.
Enjoy the show, everyone!