Here’s my annual disclaimer: I am sometimes not very accurate in my Oscar predictions. Nonetheless, here are my choices for a few of the larger awards to be handed out during tomorrow’s show.
Actor in a Leading Role: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
I think Murphy, whose wins include a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, and a SAG, takes this one, although Paul Giamatti, the Golden Globe winner for comedy/musical, is also a leading candidate.
Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Sorry, Ken, but I think an Oppenheimer actor wins this one as well. Downey Jr.’s performance has earned quite a few accolades already–plus, everyone appreciates a good redemption story.
Actress in a Leading Role: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
This category might be even tighter than Actor in a Leading Role this year. It seems that the leading candidates are Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone (who already has an Oscar for 2016’s La La Land). Gladstone is the first Native American woman to be nominated in this category (and thus, to win the award if she does so)–and I think the Academy will give it to her.
Actress in a Supporting Role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
I really enjoyed Randolph’s performance in Only Murders in the Building, which has little relevance to this Oscar race. But, there has been a slew of awards for Randolph’s work in The Holdovers at earlier awards shows this year, and my guess is that she’ll add one more to her collection tomorrow.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
This was a tough choice since all five nominees in this category are also vying for Best Picture, which hypothetically makes them all really well written films. I’m going with Oppenheimer because of its complexity of structure and ideas (especially scientifically). I appreciate how the film challenges its viewers to know their history–and to do their research if they don’t–and I think this feeling is due in large part to the film’s writing.
Writing (Original Screenplay): Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
As mentioned in an earlier post, Anatomy of a Fall should win this award for a couple reasons. First, it has been winning other such writing awards, so the pattern of victory is likely to continue tomorrow. Second, the way this film weaves together several different languages while commenting on the power of language and the influence of each word is pretty clever.
Directing: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan has given us such memorable (and at least in some cases, fantastic) films like 2008’s The Dark Knight, 2010’s Inception, and 2017’s Dunkirk; but he has never won an Oscar. I think it’s likely that whoever wins for directing tomorrow night will also win for Best Picture. Since Oppenheimer seems to have an edge on the BP race, I think Nolan will win his first Oscar this year.
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer comes into this year’s Academy Awards with 13 nominations. Only three films (1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic, and 2016’s La La Land) have received more (14 nominations each). Potentially, then, Oppenheimer could become the winningest film in Oscar history tomorrow, which I personally feel would be a shame since it is nowhere near the quality of 1959’s Ben-Hur, 1997’s Titanic, or 2003’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, the trio that hold the record for most Oscar wins (11 each).
That being said, Oppenheimer does have some strong qualities (acting, writing, directing, score, cinematography) that will make it difficult for other films to beat for the main award of the evening. I think Barbie may be too bubbly and Poor Things too odd/grotesque; Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest too “foreign”; American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon too overtly focused on race. Then again, Hollywood is all about the drama; and La La Land, despite its 14 nominations, might most be remembered in years to come for not winning Best Picture once the correct envelope was opened. Could this end up being Oppenheimer‘s fate as well?
Enjoy the show, Everyone!