I had to give myself a day or so to think about what I wanted to say here in light of the direction the post-Oscars social media conversation has been going. If we’ve learned anything from this year’s Academy Awards (and the awards season in general, I suppose), it’s that you just can’t please everyone. My initial joy that a decent film had finally won Best Picture after years and years of crappy films taking home that final Oscar was dampened a bit when I went online expecting to simply read a few reactions to a host-less show that managed to award at least one prize to each BP-nominated film while still throwing in some surprises–and I was met with drivel and vitriol about the fact that Green Book was named the year’s best film. People’s biggest complaints about Green Book? It’s not racially appropriate. It makes the black character look weaker than the white character. It’s told from the white character’s point of view and, thus, just reconfirms white superiority. The writer said something about Muslims on Twitter years ago. The director flashed someone a couple decades back. The black character’s family wasn’t involved enough and didn’t get any money. It doesn’t follow the actual events closely. And on and on.

My favorite “professional” reaction to Green Book‘s win has to be a quick article churned out by Justin Chang, a critic for the Los Angeles Times (and someone whose film thoughts I don’t ever need to read again). In his article “Oscars 2019: ‘Green Book’ is the Worst Best Picture Winner Since ‘Crash’,” Chang calls Green Book “an embarrassment” and continues to denigrate anyone who likes this film. Perhaps for other movies it is okay for people to have differing opinions, but that doesn’t apply to Green Book, says Chang: “Differences in taste are nothing new, but there is something about the anger and defensiveness provoked by this particular picture that makes reasonable disagreement unusually difficult.” But wait, Chang isn’t done yet. In trying to find a reason for how the Academy could have possibly chosen Green Book for BP, Chang wonders if the Academy’s “taste…isn’t quite as evolved” as its new, more diversified membership and thinks that some nameless “others” might “identify a stubborn strain of Trumpian anti-intellectualism among ‘Green Book’ lovers who dug in their heels in defense of a much-maligned favorite.” Wow.

In case you’re wondering which film Chang would have chosen for BP, BlackkKlansman seems to have been his favorite. Spike Lee’s film won for Writing (Adapted Screenplay) and nothing else Sunday night, but that one win did give Spike his supposedly over-deserved Oscar and allowed him time on the stage to spout politically charged rhetoric that had nothing to do with his film or with thanking people who helped him. And what did Spike do when Green Book won BP? He stormed down the aisle to leave before Dolby Theater staff made him go back to his seat–where he refused to look at the BP winners during their speeches. I hate to tell Spike this, but I don’t think BlackkKlansman was really in contention for BP this year.

Furthermore, if the difference in presentation of race relations between BlackkKlansman and Green Book is what is at issue with most of the dissenters to Green Book‘s win, let’s just look at both films’ final images (spoiler alert!). What you see at the end of BlackkKlansman is two African-Americans pointing guns out a window at a group of ignorant white bigots–followed by actual footage from Charlottesville, Virginia, that is clearly meant to be political propaganda. Green Book, on the other hand, ends with two men, one white and one black, embracing after spending almost an entire movie in a car together, learning about each other as humans–and about the lies and dangers inherent in stereotyping. The white man doesn’t “save” the black man. They each save each other from their different prejudices and incorrect preconceived ideas about race and society. Which of those scenarios sounds like it means to work toward positive racial and social change?

I’m happy to report that most of the feedback on Chang’s article has been negative (for him). One person (who stated he was African American) commented: “I too enjoyed Green Book but I think there are generational differences in how things are looked at now. I see something akin to a celebration of anger among younger people and a rejection of anything positive such as in Green Book which is seen as an artificial sweetener eclipsing realities. Green Book held out the potential that race relations can be positive and that seems to run counter to a narrative many…have. The whole thing strikes me as people who celebrate problems but offer no solutions and oppose those who do.”

What Spike Lee and BlackkKlansman offered the world at the Academy Awards was retribution and more strife–the inflexibility of a desire to push one race down to elevate another, while calling it equality and diversity. Green Book pushes no one down; it only lifts up. Despite the “controversies” that arrived at the Oscars with this film, its message wasn’t diminished as it presents two people, both struggling with their separate issues, who learn in the end that equality really has to do with what Dr. King proclaimed all those years ago: the content of one’s character, not the color of one’s skin.

The 2019 Oscars closed with black and white people sharing the stage together in celebration of a film about love. The Academy finally got it right this year. And I, for one, will be proud to add Green Book to my BP shelf.

Well, here we are after all the chaos of the Academy’s multiple debacles and the craziness of a year that has produced no clear favorite film (no pun intended). Who wins tonight is anyone’s guess; so even though I’ve tried to do my homework in the weeks leading up to the big show tonight, don’t bet anything on what you read below. Just take the following info as my rambling attempt to make sense of an awards season that, while incredibly bizarre and confusing, should prove to be super entertaining in its grand finale.

Actor in a Leading Role: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Malek has been racking up the awards this season for his role as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury, and he’d almost be a sure bet for the Oscar tonight if not for Christian Bale’s riveting performance as Dick Cheney in Vice. Of the two, though, Malek is just stunning in Bohemian Rhapsody, alternately pitiable, outlandish, and downright electrifying.

Actress in a Leading Role: Glenn Close, The Wife

Close has more Oscar nominations with no wins than any other living actor/actress, so she’s definitely a sentimental favorite. Plus, like Malek she’s been collecting a lot of hardware this year, so she should break her Oscar losing streak tonight. If someone is going to swoop in and steal the little golden man away from Close, though, it will be Olivia Colman as Queen Anne in The Favourite.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

It’s quite possible that Green Book might win BP tonight–and only take home one other Oscar for Ali’s performance as Dr. Don Shirley. It would be Ali’s second Oscar in two years (three “awards years”) as he won in 2017 for Moonlight. Although his role in Green Book is more of a co-lead with Viggo Mortensen’s Tony Lip, Ali is still very solid and memorable in this fantastic film.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Despite the fact that Beale Street was overlooked (or snubbed, according to many) for BP, King’s performance has received rave reviews; and she has won several major awards this season. This category is perhaps a little more fluid than the other acting categories–one of the ladies from The Favourite might steal this one–but King should be okay here, in my opinion.

Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

There’s been some buzz that this film should have received a BP nod; so in spite of the fact that the field of full-length animated movies is strong this year with sequels Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man will win.

Cinematography: Roma

Roma not winning this award would be rather shocking. Roma winning this award might give it an edge in the BP competition.

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Again, it would be a massive surprise if Roma doesn’t take this one.

Music (Original Score): Mary Poppins Returns

No one has any idea who’s going to take home the statuette for this category, so we’ll just go with Disney and a tribute to an older fan favorite, Mary Poppins.

Music (Original Song): “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

Lady Gaga gets her Oscar–and gives us what will probably prove to be one of the most memorable moments in the show tonight: a performance of “Shallow” with Bradley Cooper.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): BlackkKlansman

A very tough category here; but if BlackkKlansman doesn’t win BP and Spike Lee doesn’t win for Directing, then a “consolation prize” would be Lee winning for writing this film. Another possible winner here would be If Beale Street Could Talk.

Writing (Original Screenplay): The Favourite

I hate basically everything about this film, but others love it, and they love it enough to give it this big award. Personally, I hope Green Book takes this one–and it could–but The Favourite is much stranger and “out of the box,” so no surprise if it wins for writing.

Directing: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

While there might be some doubt about Cuaron’s winning Cinematography (not to mention the five total Oscars he’s up for tonight), there’s been a consensus, for the most part, that he will take home this award–even if Roma fails to win BP.

Best Picture: Roma

Oh, the agony of this decision! Honestly, when that envelope is finally opened tonight (and hopefully it will be the correct envelope!), I won’t be surprised by whatever film title is read out. I’m hoping for Green Book, and in the last few days there has been a strong push for it to win tonight. But Roma has been the favorite of the majority of critics, and the rest of the contenders have split up so many of the other awards, there’s just no telling what the Academy is thinking. Just please don’t let it be The Favourite…

Enjoy the show, Everyone!

Just in time before the big show tonight, here are a few thoughts on the final BP nominee this year, Vice. Honestly, the last thing I wanted to do this weekend was trek to a nearby theater and sit through two plus hours of more political rhetoric, but I found myself surprisingly engrossed by Vice. The acting is very good–Christian Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney is shockingly amazing. The writing is quite clever–who would think plugging a Shakespearean dialogue into a story about modern politics would actually work! And, the storyline is interesting–if not completely accurate.

That’s the biggest issue I (among many others) have with Vice: Who knows what’s true and what’s not true with this film. Nearly all the BP nominees this year chronicle actual events (to some extent); and in my mind, if a film claims to be based on a real story, then it should attempt to portray what really happened, not make stuff up to please a particular demographic or make a political statement. Well, Vice has plenty to say about the George W. Bush administration and Cheney’s role in it, and it uses that historical setting to comment (negatively, of course) on our current political situation under President Trump. Suffice it to say that no Republicans or conservatives look real good in this film. They are shown to be bumbling idiots most of the time, and they’re blamed for everything from using 9/11 as an avenue to gain power both home and abroad to creating ISIS. The funny thing about Vice is that, while most of the historical people it portrays are still living, none of them are noted in the film’s credits for contributing to the making of Vice. This isn’t very shocking considering the pro-liberal/Democrat bent of the movie, but it also certainly doesn’t give the film any credibility as far as its storytelling goes. For all intents and purposes, then, Vice becomes a completely fictional film that just uses the names of real people. Had its makers put in more effort to ensure the truth of its tale, the significance of the contribution Vice makes to history, to pop culture, and to this year’s Oscar competition would have been vastly increased.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

I think Vice is out of its league as a BP contender this year; however, it is witty, and it does make brilliant use of a couple of metaphors: fishing and the human heart. I won’t give anything away here, but this film also has the best plot twist out of all the BP nominees–the entire theater I was in actually jumped and gasped at the same time, which was pretty entertaining. Despite it being a long shot for BP, I think Vice has a good chance of taking home some of the other awards tonight, including Film Editing and Writing (Original Screenplay). And maybe that is enough for such a far-fetched film as this one.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

Like A Star Is Born, Vice doesn’t have the track record of big wins at other high-profile awards shows this year necessary to make it as much of a contender as some of the other BP nominees. Even with its strong acting and creative script, Academy voters will probably shy away from this political merry-go-round and choose something a little more meaningful (like Roma or Green Book).

My Final BP Nominee Rankings:

I’m positive that the Academy won’t agree with me here; but if I had to rank this year’s BP nominees, they would shake out like this:

1. Green Book
2. Bohemian Rhapsody
3. Roma
4. BlackkKlansman
5. Vice
6. Black Panther
7. A Star Is Born
8. The Favourite

I’m sure that by now you’ve all heard the much played single “Shallow” by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga. The sequence of A Star Is Born that revolves around the performance of that song is the highlight of this film. Other than that, we can throw this one in the trash bin as well, in my opinion. I know I’m really diverging from the mostly positive reviews critics have given this movie, but that’s okay. I strongly disliked it. I thought the script was ridiculously cheesy, for the most part–and that’s when I could understand the characters’ profanity-laced mumblings. The acting was alright at times, and the music was pretty good (though nothing like the iconic anthems of Queen that Bohemian Rhapsody treats its audience to). However, I had prepared myself to be emotionally moved by this film, and I ended up mostly confused and frustrated. I struggled to believe the connection between Bradley Cooper’s and Lady Gaga’s characters, and I couldn’t muster up enough sympathy for either of them in their eventual plights.

Part of the reason for my puzzlement and lack of emotion was because the film did not focus on what I was expecting it to. At this year’s Grammys when accepting the award for Pop Duo/Group Performance for “Shallow,” Lady Gaga made an impassioned plea to her fellow musicians to not ignore the issue of mental health–especially in their profession. What I found in A Star Is Born, though, was not a heartwrenching portrayal of a loving couple dealing with one partner’s mental condition, but a story about addiction and its effect on the characters’ relationships. Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with movies tackling the difficult topics of addiction or mental illness. The Lost Weekend, 1945’s BP winner, told the story of an alcoholic, while 2001’s BP A Beautiful Mind chronicled the life of John Nash and his battle with schizophrenia–and both films did so very tastefully and successfully. But A Star Is Born just didn’t convince me to empathize with its characters, and it very much fails to offer its viewers a better solution to addiction than brief stints in rehab. I mean, without giving anything away, if love isn’t enough, then what is the solution to the inevitability of a messy life? Well, the good news is that for those who like the idea of the storyline but didn’t love the film (like me), there are several earlier versions of it that one can try. Maybe the language in those ones will be better, at least.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

Coming in to this year’s awards season, A Star Is Born was viewed as a favorite by many for the big awards; but it hasn’t performed too well at the major shows so far–other than its domination in the song categories. “Shallow” should be a no-brainer prediction for the Academy’s Music (Original Song) winner. As for the movie’s BP chances…if Academy voters want to steer clear of the more controversial, racially focused films nominated this year, and if they believe the critics who say Bohemian Rhapsody is a poor choice, and if they hate recent politics, and if they agree with me that The Favourite is crap, then they might choose A Star Is Born. But that’s a lot of if’s.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

Despite some last minute pushes from supporters (such as Sean Penn), A Star Is Born just doesn’t seem to have the momentum (or the awards success) to take home BP this year. Plus, it’s never a good sign when a BP-nominated film’s director isn’t nominated as well. Poor Bradley Cooper in his directorial debut was snubbed by the Academy. Sad. However, I’d bet my hat that Lady Gaga will be holding an Oscar by the end of the night–but it will be for her music, not her acting.

With the Academy Awards less than a week away(!), I thought I would offer you all a special double feature of BP nominees today. Let’s first look at the Queen biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody, a film that seems to have polarized critics: either they really love it, or they absolutely abhor it (sounds a bit like how critics originally reacted to Queen’s music…). After that, we’ll check out Spike Lee’s BlackkKlansman, based on the true story of Ron Stallworth, the first African-American detective in the Colorado Springs Police Department.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Personally, after viewing Bohemian Rhapsody, I can’t get enough of Queen’s music; and I totally loved this film. It has depth, the acting is superb, and the plot is engaging. The climax of the movie, Queen’s 1985 Live Aid performance, is so gripping that I couldn’t look away for a second. It was like I was there at the concert, singing along to “We Are the Champions” with the rest of the masses. Somehow this film manages to convey both the incredible loneliness of one extraordinarily talented but troubled man and the uncanny ability of Freddie Mercury and Queen to unite their audience and make them a part of their family. Incredible. Does the film skip over major aspects of Queen’s development and song-writing process? Sure. It’s only a two-hour film, after all. Is Freddie Mercury’s inner turmoil (sexual and otherwise) perhaps a bit inaccurately portrayed? Maybe. But that is the risk taken by every film that chronicles a true story and attempts to capture a deceased person’s thoughts and feelings. Those who knew Freddie best, namely his former bandmates Brian May and Roger Taylor, were very involved in the making of this film; and their presence at award shows like the SAGs a few weeks ago is an indication that they have given their blessing to this film, which makes it probably the best glimpse we are going to get into who Freddie Mercury was. In short, is Bohemian Rhapsody a perfect movie? No, but maybe the extreme disparity among critics regarding its quality is only an indication that this film is a great one, for great films generate discussion, and a lot of people are certainly talking about this one.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

As the winner of the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, Bohemian Rhapsody has a good shot at the Academy’s highest honor. Rami Malek, who plays Freddie Mercury, should be a winner for Best Actor as well. Along with Malek, the rest of the ensemble of Bohemian Rhapsody deliver solid performances. The sound and editing are very nice, and I feel that the story moves brilliantly through the micro and macro levels, alternating between the torment of Freddie’s mind/personal life and his larger-than-life rock star/performer persona. Furthermore, throughout it all, the film seems to say that all of us are responsible for the choices we make about where we go and what we do and for our decisions about who we surround ourselves with and who we trust. Freddie becomes human, personal, relatable as he tragically deals with the consequences of his actions–a fact which doesn’t take away from his genius as a songwriter or performer. Likewise, we viewers can also be challenged to inspect our lives and consider our choices. I like a film that leads me to examine my thoughts, feelings, and habits–and Academy voters might as well.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

It’s been a little while now since the Golden Globes, and the two Best Motion Picture winners, Green Book for Musical/Comedy and Bohemian Rhapsody for Drama, have both seemed to have lost some momentum going into the Academy Awards show, which I think is very unfortunate. That being said, if Academy voters want to steer clear of the racial agendas of many of this year’s other nominees, Bohemian Rhapsody would be an excellent choice. Still, the racial element is “in” right now, and the odds are a bit against Bohemian Rhapsody in that respect. It is also completely feasible that Academy voters have listened overmuch to the negative feedback about this film and will bypass it on Sunday.

BlackkKlansman

BlackkKlansman sort of seems to have sneaked into the Best Picture race. A lot of people would have rather seen If Beale Street Could Talk earn a nod for BP–but who knows what the Academy is really up to this year. They seem to constantly be sabotaging themselves these days, what with trying to create a new category just for Black Panther and then causing an uproar when they announced last week that some of the Oscar categories won’t be televised Sunday night (they have since reversed this decision, but how much damage did it do to the Academy’s image?). Anyhow, I digress.

Unlike much of the rest of the movie-loving world, I have very little love for Spike Lee. My dislike for him stems from when I was a kid. I was a huge Indiana Pacers fan, and Spike is a New York Knicks fan–a very loud and obnoxious one. For those who followed (or, like me, were obsessed with) the NBA in the 1990s, you know that the rivalry between the Pacers and the Knicks was nasty (but entertaining!). Spike always had a front-row seat for the action in Madison Square Garden; and he was especially irritating when the Pacers came to town, which got under the skin of my favorite player, now-Hall-of-Famer (that’s for you, Spike) Reggie Miller. I would like to think that Reggie got the best of the little war of words he had going with Spike, but we Pacers fans are still waiting for an NBA championship–while Spike might get an Oscar on Sunday. I still love you, Reggie.

My personal animosity toward Spike Lee aside, I did like this film, for the most part. BlackkKlansman presents a very interesting story, boasts good acting, and was actually rather funny at times (which was refreshing for a change). That being said, the language was pretty raunchy at parts, and this film has the most racially charged agenda of any of the BP nominees this year. If it had simply stuck to the story of Ron Stallworth infiltrating the KKK in Colorado Springs, it would have been a great film; but it not very subtly attacks current political issues (and politicians) in an obviously left-wing, pro-Democrat way. Okay, let me be blunt. There’s one line in particular that discusses making America great again. I wonder whom that might be targeting…Plus, the end of the film contains actual footage from the 2017 Charlottesville, Virginia, white supremacist rally during which people were mowed down with cars and about which President Trump really had nothing appropriate to say.

The problem with a film like this is that it undermines what it professes to try to accomplish. We will never improve race relations–or our struggling country, for that matter–if we play the blame game. BlackkKlansman attempts to redress racial wrongs by promoting its own skewed sense of justice and right. One disturbing scene in the film shows Klan members and their wives raucously enjoying a showing of The Birth of a Nation, a 1915 silent film that is outrageously racist. The Klan scenes alternate with scenes of an elderly African-American man telling a room of younger African Americans the story of the lynching of one of his boyhood friends. While this section of the film is very powerful, what it really does is put us all in boxes again: white persecutors or black freedom fighters. This is not helpful for racial reconciliation.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

It is a good story, and the script is quite clever at parts. I would not be surprised at all to see BlackkKlansman take home an Oscar for Writing (Adapted Screenplay) or for Directing for Spike Lee, an award that many feel is overdue and one that would make him the first African-American director to be so honored. Nonetheless, I think it is a bit of a stretch to predict BlackkKlansman as the next BP winner, but it does address current issues and is certainly memorable.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

As you can probably tell from the above discussion, BlackkKlansman‘s story gets lost in its political and social agenda. The actual footage at the close of the film, while moving and upsetting, takes away from the plot, in my mind. The deliberately anti-Republican/Trump perspective of the movie’s makers is obvious and unnecessary. What they seem to have forgotten is that racism is a choice that is made by individuals and that stems from the evil within each member of the human race. In that vein and in contrast to Green Book, I think BlackkKlansman falls far short. What Green Book tells all Americans in a lovely and uplifting way, Spike Lee’s film screams in ugly profanity to the people for whom he doesn’t feel any fondness. Last time I checked, to truly make America great again, we’re going to need all the people to work together for change, one that will only come about through love and forgiveness, not hatred and poisonous political rhetoric.

Roma is unique for several reasons. For one, it’s the first film distributed primarily by a streaming service (Netflix) to be nominated for Best Picture (some controversy has been brewing for a while about this fact). Second, it very well might become the first foreign language film to win BP. And third, Alfonso Cuaron could take home a record five Academy Awards in one night for Roma in the Directing, Cinematography, Writing (Original Screenplay), Foreign Language Film, and Best Picture categories.

My own reactions to Roma are mixed. I found the cinematography creative and the acting solid. But not knowing much about the historical setting of the film (Mexico in the early 1970s) kept me from fully grasping its point about ordinary lives playing out in a larger world (this is my fault, though, not the fault of the movie). Plus, as with all foreign language films, it is difficult to completely take in both the action and the dialogue: The viewer often finds him/herself focusing too much on the subtitles and losing out on the visuals or vice versa. It wasn’t until the end of the film that I was affected emotionally by a couple of scenes and some of the characters’ lines, but I still feel I missed something in those more moving sections of the film. Yet, the thought of rewatching Roma to catch what I overlooked the first time isn’t very appealing as the film was difficult to get into and connect with, regardless of subtitles.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

After its success at this past weekend’s BAFTA Awards where it won Best Film, Roma is perhaps the frontrunner for BP. It’s different, its actors give good performances, it has depth, and the cinematography is being raved about. I think the film can be relatable for some people–it definitely tries to tackle social issues such as economic inequality and corrupt government. Moreover, the fact that it owes its origin to Alfonso Cuaron’s own childhood and memories makes the film more endearing than it would be otherwise.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

It’s foreign. And that fact alone could be enough to kill its chances of winning BP. I might not be the only one who appreciates Roma‘s cinematography but finds it difficult to connect to the story–whether that is because of cultural differences or simply the fact that I couldn’t decide whether to focus on the words or the visuals. By the time some of the more emotional scenes occur, I had been so lulled into apathy by images of dirty dishes, lights being turned off, and cars squeezing into tiny garages that I found myself too disconnected from the characters to truly empathize with them. That might be a bit heartless-sounding for a film which does have some creativity, emotion, and deeper meaning, but Roma lost me, and it might lose Academy voters as well.

Black Panther has been generating a lot of buzz for over a year. For fans of Marvel Comics, its release was long overdue, and its popularity cannot be denied as it is now the highest grossing film of 2018–and one of the most financially successful movies of all time. A few months ago, the Academy even considered creating a new awards category, Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film, presumably because they didn’t feel Black Panther was worthy of Best Picture, but felt compelled to recognize its staggering box office returns. Facing considerable backlash from the media and film critics, the Academy backed off their proposed addition; and Black Panther has indeed nabbed a BP nod, the first for a comic book film.

I confess that I was rather skeptical about this film and its BP nomination prior to actually viewing it because 1.) I’m not a huge fan of comic book movies; and 2.) Everyone keeps talking about the film’s racial agenda, which made me even less eager to see it. But in the few days since viewing the film and letting it marinade a bit in my mind, I’ve come to the conclusion that Black Panther really is a decent movie (it seems especially so after my recent screening of The Favourite). Best Picture worthy, though? No, I’m not convinced it’s that good. What I do appreciate about the movie, however, is that it clearly presents a conflict between good and evil and emphasizes the importance of always choosing and fighting for what is good. At the same time, Black Panther also gives its viewers a glimpse into some of the tragic motivations for those who do evil and allows its hero to feel sympathy for the pain of others–while not excusing the crimes that they commit. That morality I greatly appreciated.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

If we’re simply looking at the numbers, no other film comes close to Black Panther; yet the Academy (especially in recent years) doesn’t necessarily choose to award films that are popular with the general populace. Numbers aside, the film’s story is compelling. No matter how one slices it, the good triumphing over evil bit just never gets old. And, yes, I think the racial agenda comes into play more in the conversation of why this movie might win than why it might not win because after all the clamoring over the past couple years for more prominent roles for African-American actors, here is a film that boasts an almost entirely African-American cast, presents an interesting plot, and was wildly successful at the box office. In an effort to prove its newly discovered love of diversity, the Academy might just hand over that final statuette to Black Panther.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

On the other hand, no previous comic book film has ever been nominated for BP, let alone won the Academy’s highest honor. While I enjoy seeing the good guys sock it to the bad guys, some Academy voters might view Black Panther‘s plot as a little repetitive since comic book films can often seem to blend all together. Plus, despite a general enthusiasm for the number of African-American actors in the film and for the film’s “celebration of African culture,” Black Panther received no acting nominations. Surprisingly, it also failed to grab a nod for Visual Effects, a category in which comic book films often fare well. No nominations for screenplay or editing likewise decrease this movie’s chances of winning BP. But, hey, it still made all that money!

Along with Mexican foreign language film Roma, The Favourite leads this year’s Oscar nominees with ten total nods. It will, therefore, be a contender at this year’s Academy Awards–even though it hasn’t performed super well so far at other major awards shows, finding itself completely shut out at the SAG Awards, despite boasting a pretty strong cast, and nabbing only one Golden Globe: Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy for Olivia Colman as Queen Anne.

While the lack of hardware might upset The Favourite‘s numerous fans, I’m certainly not crying about this film’s lack of awards memorabilia–nor do I in the least number myself with those who gush about the greatness of this film. It is, frankly, trash.

A couple of positives before I dip my hands into the manure pile that is this film…the costumes are rather lovely (if a bit repetitive), and the acting is pretty solid overall. The art direction and set design are good, and I suppose the plot is interesting, but it is so mired in historical inaccuracies and overt sexuality that it’s difficult to get into the story.

And that brings us to the negatives of the film. First, I don’t understand how people can rave about the script of this film as it is riddled with profanity (which is unnecessary and, again, completely inconsistent with the time of its setting). Second, sex, sex, and more sex. I still don’t know how our featured British aristocrats manage to carry on a war with France in the film when all they think and talk about is sex. Constantly. Third, last year Hollywood was screaming for more roles featuring empowered women, and I think many believe they have received their wish with this film. However, while The Favourite boasts three striking female lead characters, their behavior in the film is extremely degrading to women. Their thirst for power is almost as revolting as the lengths they go to in order to obtain and retain it: plots which usually involve manipulations of a sexual nature. Isn’t the portrayal of women using their sexuality to get what they want one of the main complaints Hollywood (and all the rest of the world) has had about female roles in film? I just don’t get it.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

People are calling The Favourite witty and clever. Maybe for those whose vocabulary mostly includes sexual innuendo and the f-word. People who ignore the rich variety of the English language might feel this film is deserving of the Academy’s highest honor, but I disagree. Sometimes I think that all a film needs to do to win big awards these days is to dress its actors up in expensive period costumes, place them in front of old castles, teach them to speak with British accents–and make them take their fancy clothes off frequently while spouting off the f-word approximately every few minutes or so. The Favourite does all these things, so who knows? It could definitely win.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

Other than the fact that it’s horrible, this movie is also tragic. Well, the film itself isn’t overly sad (though it is by no means a comedy like the Golden Globes would have us believe), but it is appalling and upsetting that this is what our culture has come to value: smut. The story is dark with or without all the sexuality and profanity, and Academy voters just might want to choose something a little lighter. Furthermore, The Favourite‘s portrayal of powerful women as desperate, cold-hearted, and promiscuous might actually backfire and leave this film a big loser on Oscar night. I for one hope so.