Here’s my annual disclaimer: I am sometimes not very accurate in my Oscar predictions. Nonetheless, here are my choices for a few of the larger awards to be handed out during tomorrow’s show.

Actor in a Leading Role: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

I think Murphy, whose wins include a Golden Globe, a BAFTA, and a SAG, takes this one, although Paul Giamatti, the Golden Globe winner for comedy/musical, is also a leading candidate.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Sorry, Ken, but I think an Oppenheimer actor wins this one as well. Downey Jr.’s performance has earned quite a few accolades already–plus, everyone appreciates a good redemption story.

Actress in a Leading Role: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

This category might be even tighter than Actor in a Leading Role this year. It seems that the leading candidates are Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone (who already has an Oscar for 2016’s La La Land). Gladstone is the first Native American woman to be nominated in this category (and thus, to win the award if she does so)–and I think the Academy will give it to her.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

I really enjoyed Randolph’s performance in Only Murders in the Building, which has little relevance to this Oscar race. But, there has been a slew of awards for Randolph’s work in The Holdovers at earlier awards shows this year, and my guess is that she’ll add one more to her collection tomorrow.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

This was a tough choice since all five nominees in this category are also vying for Best Picture, which hypothetically makes them all really well written films. I’m going with Oppenheimer because of its complexity of structure and ideas (especially scientifically). I appreciate how the film challenges its viewers to know their history–and to do their research if they don’t–and I think this feeling is due in large part to the film’s writing.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)

As mentioned in an earlier post, Anatomy of a Fall should win this award for a couple reasons. First, it has been winning other such writing awards, so the pattern of victory is likely to continue tomorrow. Second, the way this film weaves together several different languages while commenting on the power of language and the influence of each word is pretty clever.

Directing: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Christopher Nolan has given us such memorable (and at least in some cases, fantastic) films like 2008’s The Dark Knight, 2010’s Inception, and 2017’s Dunkirk; but he has never won an Oscar. I think it’s likely that whoever wins for directing tomorrow night will also win for Best Picture. Since Oppenheimer seems to have an edge on the BP race, I think Nolan will win his first Oscar this year.

Best Picture: Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer comes into this year’s Academy Awards with 13 nominations. Only three films (1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic, and 2016’s La La Land) have received more (14 nominations each). Potentially, then, Oppenheimer could become the winningest film in Oscar history tomorrow, which I personally feel would be a shame since it is nowhere near the quality of 1959’s Ben-Hur, 1997’s Titanic, or 2003’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, the trio that hold the record for most Oscar wins (11 each).

That being said, Oppenheimer does have some strong qualities (acting, writing, directing, score, cinematography) that will make it difficult for other films to beat for the main award of the evening. I think Barbie may be too bubbly and Poor Things too odd/grotesque; Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest too “foreign”; American Fiction and Killers of the Flower Moon too overtly focused on race. Then again, Hollywood is all about the drama; and La La Land, despite its 14 nominations, might most be remembered in years to come for not winning Best Picture once the correct envelope was opened. Could this end up being Oppenheimer‘s fate as well?

Enjoy the show, Everyone!

What if…?

Undoubtedly, we all have moments in our lives that we look back on and wonder “What if I had done this and not this, chosen this way and not that one, etc.?” As it traces the relationship of Nora and Hae Sung from their adolescence in South Korea to 12 years later to 12 additional years later, Past Lives is basically a giant “what if.” The main characters Nora and Hae Sung obviously have a special relationship; but when Nora’s family immigrates to the U.S. (and when she adopts her American name Nora), their lives take different paths–only to reunite virtually when the two are 24 and then in person when they are 36.

In a way, this story is about immigration and how it changes the lives of all involved. But it’s also about connections, how sometimes we just feel something for someone and can’t really put a finger on the nature of the connection or why it even exists. For Nora in particular (spoiler alert!), her relationship with Hae Sung ties her to her country of origin, to her past, to what she left behind. She tells her husband–who is not Korean–that when she’s with Hae Sung she both feels more Korean and less Korean. In other words, this relationship leads Nora to ponder her identity.

Why This Film Might Win Best Picture:

Past Lives is a simple story about normal people. Because this film is about some pretty common issues such as personal relationships/connections, identity, and questioning one’s choices in life, many people–including Academy voters–likely find they can relate to the storyline. Sometimes a quiet story is a welcome one.

Why This Film Might Not Win Best Picture:

Well, to be honest, this movie is a bit slow; and while I appreciated the quiet of the story as a break from something louder and flashier like Oppenheimer, it didn’t seem like much happened in Past Lives. The latest Oscar polls seem to indicate this film is currently in last place in the BP hunt. But one never knows. Perhaps enough Academy voters have personally wrestled with the “what if” question enough to throw a few votes toward Past Lives.

Ah, ambiguity. It sometimes works–as it does in 2010’s Inception–but it was a little unsatisfying for me in Anatomy of a Fall, a story in which a woman named Sandra is accused of killing her husband. Sandra is also the mother of an adolescent son (Daniel) who is visually impaired–and potentially holding onto some information regarding his father’s death. Although Daniel’s disability is important to the film’s plot, it is unfortunately not given the priority that would heighten the conflict’s tension. I wanted the Hitchcockian feel of a Rear Window, but I didn’t get that. Furthermore, since this movie is a whodunit of sorts, I was mostly interested in finding out who done it. Spoiler alert: I didn’t find out.

Why This Film Might Win Best Picture:

First, I think Anatomy of a Fall will win an Oscar for Writing (Original Screenplay). Winning the Writing Oscar doesn’t guarantee a film will also win BP–in fact, it sometimes seems as if the Writing awards are almost consolation prizes for movies that don’t win BP. However, we rarely see a film only win BP, so competing for/winning other (and bigger) awards definitely helps propel a film into the forefront of Academy voters’ minds.

On the one hand, Anatomy of a Fall is interesting from a writing standpoint because, technically, this is a French film that is only partly in French and also partly in German and English. It uses these various languages very smoothly and believably, and it has some thought-provoking things to say about language itself and its power to convey ideas, connect/disconnect people, etc.

On the other hand, this film’s script–pieced together in its small multitude of languages– comments on the universal topic of women and how they are treated differently than men (i.e., stereotyped) and held to different standards. In this respect, it shares some similar points with another of this year’s BP nominees, Barbie, although the two films approach this hot-button Hollywood topic quite differently.

Why This Film Might Not Win Best Picture

In a whodunnit, people want closure. Maybe we don’t fully understand all the details and motivations involved in a crime, but we want to know who committed the crime and why. Anatomy of a Fall doesn’t give us either of those pieces of info. And while I appreciate the use of various languages in the film, the extra effort I put in to read the subtitles while paying attention to the film’s visual elements didn’t seem to be rewarded because of the lack of clarity at the end of the movie.

One last item to consider is that Anatomy of a Fall is this year’s winner of the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. Palme d’Or winners don’t usually win BP. However, 2019’s Parasite, the last Palme d’Or winner to also win BP, reminds us (Americans) that a film can tell a great story in a non-English language and still be great. The problem for Anatomy of a Fall is that it fails to replicate Parasite‘s thoughtful and satisfying ambiguity.