Here we are again, ready to celebrate film and award (what are supposed to be) the year’s best motion pictures! Like last year, we have an interesting group of films this year–no one movie has dominated the awards shows leading up to tonight’s Academy Awards, so we are probably in for a nice divvying up of the little golden statuettes–with perhaps a few surprises thrown in here and there. Let me make my usual disclaimer first: Typically, I’m pretty bad at Oscar predictions. And now here are a few guesses as to who I think will take home some of the prizes at tonight’s Academy Awards.

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

This one is a no-brainer. Phoenix has won all the awards so far this year, he’s a brilliant actor yet to win an Oscar, he should have won for 2000’s Gladiator (maybe that’s beside the point now…), and he steals the show in Joker. Expect an awkward speech, though.

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy

I think we’ll get another awkward moment from Zellweger if her Oscar acceptance speech is anything like the one she made at the Golden Globes a few weeks back. Like Phoenix, Zellweger has been cleaning up at the awards shows so far, and there doesn’t seem to be any inclination that the Academy will vote differently. That being said, it’s hard to forget that shocking incident in last year’s show when Olivia Colman upset shoo-in Glenn Close for this award, but Zellweger’s competition this year doesn’t seem to be as strong.

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Pitt is very popular with fans and peers. Although he already has an Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave (2013), Pitt doesn’t yet have a golden man for acting. In the Academy’s long tradition of awarding popular actors with Oscars, Pitt will fill this void in his life tonight.

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

I love Laura Dern–in Jurassic Park. I didn’t like her so much in Marriage Story. But everyone else does, and she will continue her winning streak tonight–beating out her Marriage Story co-star Scarlett Johansson, whose first two Oscar nominations came in the same year: one for Best Actress for Marriage Story, and the other for Best Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, neither of which she will probably win.

Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 4

This is a hard one this year. It was a bit of a shocker to not see Frozen II or The Lion King in this category, so we’re left with sorting out the nominees we did get. The movies in this category have divided up several awards among themselves so far; and although the Academy isn’t always kind to sequels (especially of an animated sort), there aren’t too many people who don’t love Pixar or have warm feelings for its first original film, Toy Story (1995).

International Feature Film: Parasite

Another no-brainer. If something crazy happens and Parasite does not win in this category, 1917 will almost certainly be this year’s Best Picture winner.

Music (Original Score): Joker, Hildur Guonadottir

A relative unknown, Guonadottir gave us one of the most hauntingly beautiful scores of the year in Joker. The music isn’t as memorable as past epic scores like that of 1939’s Gone with the Wind or 1997’s Titanic, but it manages to mirror what goes on within the mind of Arthur Fleck, as well as capture the chaos of a disintegrating world.

Music (Original Song): “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman

Who (among Academy members) would not want to see Elton John win an Oscar? This is not a strong category this year, but I think poor Diane Warren will lose yet again.

Cinematography: 1917

Those long battlefield shots–especially the one at the end–will be hard to overcome in this category.

Production Design: 1917

I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could snatch this one as well, but 1917‘s set pieces and background locations are stunningly realistic. At times the characters are dwarfed by their surroundings, and not for no reason.

Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

Here we have a BP nominee who will not win BP taking home one of the awards that usually goes to the film that wins BP. But, Ford v Ferrari is a popular pick among critics to win this category due to the speed of the shots the editors had to work with. Parasite could also win here; and if it does, its odds of winning BP will multiply tremendously.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Little Women, Greta Gerwig

Jojo Rabbit is perhaps the frontrunner for this category; but since so many people are miffed about Gerwig’s exclusion from the Best Directing category, I’m thinking she may garner more than enough votes to take home an Oscar for her lovely adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood might win here as well, but Parasite is more deserving of this award. Plus, if Bong Joon Ho does not win for Best Director or Best Picture, an Oscar in this category would be a nice consolation prize.

Directing: Sam Mendes, 1917

Whoever wins for directing will almost certainly also tell us who will win BP. However, there is a slim chance that Mendes will win for directing 1917 and Parasite will steal BP. Quentin Tarantino is also a player in this category. But I feel that Mendes has the momentum from his wins at the year’s other awards shows, and 1917‘s continuous shots and sweeping cinematography put Mendes ahead of his competitors for this award.

Best Picture: 1917

In the words of Heath Ledger’s Joker, “And…here…we…go.” I’ve been agonizing about my choice for BP since seeing Parasite this past Friday night. I had become nearly absolutely certain that 1917 has BP in the bag. But, oh man, Parasite‘s complexity, its brilliant storytelling, and its ambiguous ending keep swirling in my mind. Out of every BP nominee I’ve watched this year, Parasite is the one I want to watch again as soon as possible. 1917 is a beautiful movie with a gripping and inspiring story. Parasite is not a beautiful movie, but it is downright ingenious. The question of which will win really comes down to whether Academy voters will choose a foreign film to receive their highest honor or if they will stick with a genre more familiar to them and opt for 1917‘s classic war story. I honestly could see it going either way. And we can’t totally count out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood due to Hollywood’s love affair with itself. But I think, ultimately, 1917 takes this one home. Parasite‘s popularity is late-blooming, and the Academy may not yet be as diverse or “forward-thinking” as it believes it is.

Enjoy the show, everyone!

This was actually the first BP-nominated film I watched this awards season, but I’ve been putting off writing about it (for a while now…) because I just didn’t like it at all. Basically, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is revisionist history–or, to be even more accurate, it’s a fairy tale based on actual events that took place in Los Angeles in 1969.

The film mostly follows two main characters: Rick Dalton, a formerly successful TV actor who’s a bit down on his luck, and Dalton’s stunt double, Cliff Booth, whose physical abilities are nearly super-human but who’s struggling financially (especially due to Dalton’s inability to land major roles). Oh, yes–and Dalton lives next door to Roman Polanski and Sharon Tate, which leads any student of modern history and/or Hollywood history to assume the ending of this film is going to be gruesome and disturbing.

If gruesome and disturbing are what you’re looking for, you won’t be disappointed with this movie. What with the foul language and the filth of the characters (physically and morally), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is never a feel-good, warm film. It has some suspense, and the combination of Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt provides an interesting dynamic (especially as Leo is cast against type). Still, the ending of the movie–wishful thinking, though it seems to be–leaves much to be desired. I think it’s supposed to be creative, but it was so gruesome that I ducked under my blanket for a good long while.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

Hollywood always loves movies about itself, and some people have gone as far as calling Once Upon a Time in Hollywood an ode to the end of Hollywood’s golden age. Leo and Brad play their roles well and are supported by a good cast. I suppose one could call the writing creative; but again, I’m not a fan of Quentin Tarantino’s work, so I’m definitely not in this camp. This film is odd, and Hollywood loves oddity nearly as much as it loves itself, so this movie could definitely win BP tonight.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

In my mind, as we approach tonight’s ceremony, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is running third in the race for BP after 1917 and Parasite. Tarantino’s film glorifies old Hollywood, features two of the most popular actors of our time, and transforms what we would expect to be the ending of the story in a way that is supposed to make us feel good (I didn’t feel good…). However, this is not a beautiful movie in any sense, whereas 1917 is. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood‘s bizarre ending is still not as shocking or thought-provoking as Parasite‘s twists and turns. Plus, there is quite a bit of controversy surrounding Tarantino’s portrayal of film legend Bruce Lee and more than a little discomfort with how the movie messes with a historical moment that Hollywood would not like to revisit too often.

If you’re looking for a movie with a lot of action, Marriage Story is not for you. This is the year’s family drama, I suppose; and it has way more to do with feelings and emotions than with any particularly wild plot schemes. The film tells the story of the divorce of Charlie and Nicole–as well as the complication added by money-grubbing, hatred-rousing divorce lawyers. It goes without saying that many people in Hollywood are familiar with the divorce storyline since celebrity marriages statistically have higher rates of failure than those of the average American. Whether or not that makes Marriage Story a popular choice for BP remains to be seen.

Channeling past winners like 1979’s Kramer vs. Kramer and 1980’s Ordinary People, Marriage Story examines what it means to be a family in the midst of family circumstances that are not ideal. Charlie and Nicole did love each other once, and it is difficult for them (and for us viewers as well) to grasp what exactly broke them apart. The heartbreak in the film is layered with the comedic relief of quirky family members and awkward situations that add to the reality of the story and further emphasize the fact that people and relationships are complicated–something we can all relate to, whether or not we’ve experienced the pain of divorce.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

This is a tough one. The film’s story is good, though not great; and its writing is decent. But what Marriage Story mostly has going for it is that its actors deliver believable, moving performances that allow us to connect with them emotionally more than we do with characters in other nominated films for this year. I see sincerity in this movie, and that counts for something–though probably not enough to win BP.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

It’s a little forgettable when it sits in a list with blockbuster-caliber films like 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Marriage Story isn’t the only film from 2019 to feature strong acting performances in emotional roles, so it can’t really bank on that feature alone to put it at the top of Academy members’ voting ballots. If Parasite winning BP would be like feeling the tremors of an earthquake, then Marriage Story winning BP would be like witnessing the dawn of the apocalypse. Just saying…

Joker is emblematic of the recent trend in making use of the antihero, a main character who exhibits negative characteristics that we don’t usually associate with protagonists. Usually, we like our protagonists to be “good guys” who fight “bad guys” and win. Definitely not what we get with this film.

Joker is the story of one Arthur Fleck, a broken and mentally ill man whose whole life has consisted of one cruel disappointment after another–and as those heartbreaking events come upon him in swift succession, Arthur seems to always become the victim of physical violence in some form or another. As Arthur observes, the rich have everything and don’t give a care about those at the bottom of the social ladder. Crime seems to pay; and after a few too many let-downs, Arthur decides to stop being a victim and live for his own amusement–which leads him to make victims of others.

Like Parasite, Joker includes no small amount of socio-economic commentary: Rich people are the enemy, and the poor are victims of the prosperity and selfishness of the upper class. Furthermore, Joker is an investigation of self, of motives, of how much power to allow one’s past to have over one’s future. So, it’s not just a film about violence, but it does have some really disturbing parts. Um, let me rephrase that: The whole film is disturbing, and you should definitely close your eyes during a couple of particularly gory parts. But if you are interested in mental illness and the study of it, this film could easily draw you in.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

Joaquin Phoenix is spectacular in this film. He is on-screen nearly the entire time, and it is difficult to look away from him. The surest bet out of all the Oscar categories this year is probably Phoenix for Best Actor. The supporting cast is solid, though pretty bland (not through any fault of their own…Phoenix just steals the show). The music is hauntingly beautiful (and may also win for Original Score), and the cinematography is creative. With a familiar character like the Joker, the current popularity of comics, and a performance like Phoenix’s, Joker could perhaps win BP.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

As captivating as Phoenix’s Joker is, he still makes me want to hide my head under a blanket and periodically peep over the top to see if I can come out yet. And I’m probably not alone in feeling this way. This movie might just be too dark for Academy voters to choose it for their top prize. It hasn’t been long enough since Heath Ledger’s posthumous Oscar win for playing the same character–a role which caused him mental and emotional anguish and led to his eventual demise. Although Phoenix is sure to follow in Ledger’s footsteps and be handed a little golden man for playing one of the creepiest villains to appear in film in the last decade or so, the makers of Joker might not be laughing at the end of the night tomorrow.

I literally just finished watching this film, and my mind is reeling.

Over the last few weeks, there’s been some serious hype about Parasite winning BP. Yet I confess, I didn’t go into my viewing of it with high expectations. Boy, was I wrong. This indeed could be the year that a foreign language film–I mean, an international feature film–wins the Academy’s whole shebang. Some people were a bit miffed when Mexico’s Roma didn’t win BP last year, but South Korea’s Parasite blows Roma right out of the water.

A combination of a little bit of horror, a smidge of comedy, a double-portion of suspense, and a massive amount of socio-economic commentary, Parasite keeps its viewers guessing right until the end as the protagonist Kim family, poor and unbelievably conniving, worms its way into the household of the wealthy and privileged Park family. The economic disparity between the two families spawns a host of profound ideas that the film explores: the power of money, the futility of humanity’s scheming, the value of family, and the tragedy of–and social question about–“all the people who live in basements.” Other than a super awkward and unnecessary sexually explicit scene, as well as some profanity (which the English subtitles happily translate from Korean) and a surprising bit of violence, Parasite is a rather brilliant movie.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

It’s definitely memorable and thought-provoking. And, yes, it’s brilliant. Somehow, Parasite combines the dramatic irony and social class conflict of 1950’s All About Eve with Get Out‘s (2017) creepy, knock-your-socks-off plot twists. It is superbly written (except for the sex scene and the profanity, of course) and well shot. Plus, a few weeks back, the cast of Parasite took home the SAG Award for Cast in a Motion Picture, that show’s highest honor. “If not now, when?” has suddenly been popping up all over Twitter, a hint of the popularity and momentum that might make Parasite the first non-English-language film to ever win Best Picture.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

It’s not in English. Foreign films, with a few exceptions, don’t usually fare well when it comes to the later awards on Oscar night. For American viewers, Parasite‘s cast members are unfamiliar; and to me, although they got stronger as the film went on, the first 30 minutes or so of the film were anything but an acting clinic. Parasite is very clever, for the most part, about having the characters be silent at suspenseful or action-packed moments of the movie–this allows non-Korean-speaking viewers to be able to focus on the visuals instead of trying to keep up with the subtitles. However, that struggle to find a balance between reading lines and watching the action does take something away from the film (at least upon one’s initial viewing). But then again, perhaps Academy voters will come back for another helping of the brilliance of this movie. Parasite is definitely worth a second glance and more than a second thought for BP on Sunday.

People were already buzzing about The Irishman‘s domination of the 2020 Academy Awards at this time last year. The big draw here is the combination of the directing of Martin Scorsese and the acting of greats Robert De Niro and Al Pacino (along with Joe Pesci and every other Italian actor we know and love–even funny guy Ray Romano gets in on the action). The Irishman tries to ride the coattails of 1972’s BP The Godfather: same actors, mobster story, violence, etc. But, The Godfather–and Marlon Brando as Don Corleone–is iconic cinema, and it is none too easily roped in as a “booster” to the success of another film. If you like gangster movies, you may come to love this one; but for me it is not nearly up to par with The Godfather, though promotional material keeps trying to assure us it is. The Godfather possesses those deeper themes regarding family and loyalty and ethics; and although The Irishman tries to also incorporate these ideas, it falls a bit flat. This might be because it is so, so, so long. Good grief, is it long!

Why This Film Might Win BP:

Again, the biggest thing this film has going for it is its cast, its director, and its mobster subject matter. Even though it is not as dynamic or memorable as Francis Ford Coppola’s masterpiece, The Irishman is still the most Godfather-like film we’ve had in a long, long time; and Academy voters know that. Pesci, De Niro, and Pacino are very convincing, and together they deliver what is arguably the best performance by an ensemble cast this year. Plus, 10 nominations is nothing to sneeze at.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

For all the hype, The Irishman has come up pretty short at all the major awards shows so far. Despite its strong cast and popular subject matter, in my opinion, this film does not meet the expectations that were created for it. Thus, it doesn’t seem to be as good as it might be. That last sentence is about as clear as some of the plot lines and family/mobster relations featured in The Irishman…And yes, it is so, so long. Plus, its being a Netflix film and not a widely released theatrical motion picture, places The Irishman in the “controversial” category of films vying for BP. Maybe the Academy won’t opt for controversial this year.

Hello there! I’m finally back at it and just in time for what is perhaps our favorite time of the year (at least movie-wise). Yes, the Academy Awards are right around the corner, only a week away. And because the Oscars are super ridiculously early this year, I might not be able to succeed at my usual quest to view all the nominees beforehand; but I’ll make a valiant effort to see as many as possible.

Let’s start with a good one. 1917 is a World War I flick, which we hardly ever see. I was just talking with one of my classes this past week about how WWI is so overshadowed in our current time period by the more recent and more famous WWII. WWI is not often studied by the average student these days, there are no survivors anymore, and the impact of the War to End All Wars has faded into distant memory. However, the calamity that was WWI was just as earth-shattering as WWII–and in fact, without a WWI there may not have even been a WWII. Still today in our post-Holocaust world, it is so easy for many of us to forget this war and those who fought and died in it.

1917 remembers the Great War, though, and it remembers it well. In a breathtaking mixture of beautiful cinematography, respectable acting, solid and suspenseful storytelling, and a lovely score, 1917 almost hearkens back to the Oscar-winning epics of past years. While we don’t get quite as attached to the characters in 1917 as we do with those of films the likes of Braveheart (1995) and Gladiator (2000), 1917‘s protagonist, William Schofield, is still pretty lovable and inspiring in his own right, even though he’s not nearly as memorable. What I appreciated most about 1917 was that, along with telling a good story, the film attempts to address deeper issues such as the value of life; the ethics of warfare; and the importance of loyalty, friendship, and family.

Why This Film Might Win BP:

1917 comes into the 92nd Academy Awards with 10 nominations, which automatically qualifies it as a frontrunner for the final Oscar of the night. Plus, it took home Best Motion Picture – Drama at this year’s Golden Globes, which is often (but not always) an indication of which direction the Oscar vote might go as well. Apart from its prior accolades, though, 1917 isn’t controversial, can’t be said to be uninspiring, and is a beauty to see on the big screen–all elements in its favor to take home BP next Sunday.

Why This Film Might Not Win BP:

Like 2017’s Dunkirk (but not quite to that extent), 1917‘s characters get a little lost in the film’s sweeping cinematography and action; and there’s not as much dialogue as there is suspense. Hence, the film garnered no acting nominations–nor was it nominated for Film Editing, a category in which the night’s ultimate winner usually also proves victorious. In recent years, the Academy has steered away from epics and has awarded more “artsy” films, which doesn’t bode well for 1917. And, since World War I isn’t the most popular topic for film and most people are less familiar with this war, voters may not have felt as much of an attachment to 1917. If 1917 can beat the odds, though (and I hope it does), it will be the first WWI flick to win BP since 1930’s All Quiet on the Western Front, a brilliant film whose echoes down through time are not completely unheard by 1917.